[ Acknowledgements | Introduction | Part One | Part Two | Part Three | Appendix ]
I have profited greatly from discussing probability and induction with Mr.Manfred von Thun during the years 1967--70, when he was first an undergraduate and then a graduate student of the University of Sydney. Much more than that, however; the materials of Chapter 5 sections (iii) and (iv) of the present work are entirely due to Mr.von Thun. Just how important those sections are for my argument as a whole will be evident to any reader. In fact, along with Chapters 2--4, they make up the heart of the book.
All of the other pieces which make up the book were clear in my mind before Mr.von Thun supplied me with the argument given in Chapter 5 section (iii). None of them, consequently, needed to be altered after he had done so. But his argument has helped me a second time, since it was easily adaptable so as to become an addition to my other arguments in Chapter 6.
For critical comments on the penultimate draft of the book, I am especially indebted to Mr.J.L.Mackie and (again) to Mr.von Thun. But Professor J.J.C.Smart and Professor D.M.Armstrong also helped me by their comments on that draft; for which I thank them.
D.C.S
University of Sydney
1971
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